State of the Mariners – June 12th, 2025

Seattle Mariners
Written By Charles Hamaker

By Brittany Wisner, edited by Charles Hamaker

Seattle, WA - The Seattle Mariners have fallen into an all-too-familiar slump, losing eight of their last nine games, falling below .500 for the first time since April 15, and dropping to 4.5 games behind the Houston Astros in the American League West. 

Collectively, they have played a sloppy, uninspired brand of baseball. Individually, it’s been a staggering unraveling; nearly every player not named Cal Raleigh has seen notable regression, some to the point of being unrecognizable from where they were just a month ago. It’s a troubling trend that has occurred in nearly every Mariner season in recent years. What once seemed like a team poised for a playoff run now looks like a club that may be selling at the trade deadline. 

Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh during the teams May 30th, 2025 loss to the Minnesota Twins at T-Mobile Park. (Photos by Kevin Ng for Circling Seattle Sports)

Since the beginning of the last homestand, the Seattle offense has combined for a .693 OPS with 16 home runs and 50 RBI. Considering that Cal Raleigh alone has had a 1.192 OPS with 9 home runs and 18 RBI over that stretch, it paints an ugly picture of just how far the rest of the lineup has fallen.

And yet somehow, the Mariners’ struggles at the plate have not even been their most glaring issue. What is supposed to be the foundation of the team– the pitching staff– has become one of the worst units in baseball in recent weeks.

Since game one of the series loss to the Nationals, Seattle’s starting rotation and bullpen have combined for -0.5 fWAR, per Fangraphs. The only team with worse production from its pitching staff over that time was the A’s, who subsequently have plummeted to the bottom of the American League West. 

While the starting rotation has been mediocre at best– posting a 4.46 ERA over the last 15 games–the bullpen has been absolutely disastrous over that time, delivering some of the worst performances fans have seen from Mariner relievers in years. The relief group had a 6.10 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in 51.2 innings, ranking 28th in the league in each respective category. 

Amid the collapse on the mound, there’s been one steady presence trying to right the ship. He has kept the Mariners afloat offensively and is one of two players whose contributions have been glowingly positive.

Who’s Hot

Cal Raleigh

Raleigh continues to compile one of the greatest seasons ever produced by a catcher. The Big Dumper leads the league in home runs with 26, one more than reigning AL MVP and single-season home run record holder Aaron Judge. Raleigh is currently on pace for 66 home runs and recently became the first catcher in MLB history to reach 20 home runs before the end of May. Since May 27th, the Mariner backstop has carried the team offensively, slashing .304/.371/.804 for an incredible 225 wRC+. 

It’s a ridiculous stretch that has national media buzzing and has put Raleigh firmly in the conversation as a legitimate contender for this year’s MVP award. 

Seattle Mariners shortstop J.P. Crawford during the teams May 31st, 2025 win over the Minnesota Twins at T-Mobile Park. (Photos by Kevin Ng for Circling Seattle Sports)

J.P. Crawford

Entering this season, J.P. Crawford was identified early on as one of the players the team would need a bounce back year from if they wanted a chance to compete. Seattle’s unofficial captain has delivered, reclaiming his spot atop the Mariners’ lineup and producing some of the best numbers of his career so far. 

Serving as the only other consistent bat in the M’s lineup, Crawford has been fantastic in recent weeks, slashing .339/.448/.464 with a 172 wRC+ in his last 67 plate appearances. His walk rate of 16.4% over that time is the highest on the team by leaps and bounds. In two and a half months, Crawford has already surpassed his WAR numbers from 2024, worth 1.8 fWAR in 65 games compared to 1.6 fWAR he was worth in all of 2024.

Crawford has provided stability to a Mariners’ lineup that has greatly needed it, consistently getting on base and setting the tone in the first inning of games. His leadership in the clubhouse continues to prove to be important and Seattle will undoubtedly need him to continue to perform in order to dig out of the hole they are in. 

Who’s Not So Hot

Jorge Polanco

After an absolutely scorching month of April, Jorge Polanco has come crashing back down to earth.  

Polanco has been one of Seattle’s worst hitters in recent weeks. Since 5/27, he is slashing just .212/.241/.231 with zero home runs and only two RBI. One of the lineup’s primary contributors just a month ago, he has been well below replacement level as of late, worth just -0.4 fWAR over the last 15 games and producing an abysmal 37 wRC+. 

Whether he’s still battling a minor oblique injury that was sustained earlier in the year or it’s simply a regression to the mean, the Mariners cannot afford to have Polanco revert back to the glaring hole in the lineup that he was last year. They’ll need to see a turnaround from him quick; if not, an IL stint may be necessary for him to rest and get back to full health.

Mitch Garver

Mitch Garver’s playing time has steadily decreased as the season has gone on, and for good reason. While Cal Raleigh’s historic tear has made it nearly impossible to justify giving him a day off, Garver has also seen the field less simply due to his near-total lack of production at the plate.

Garver has 122 plate appearances on the season and is slashing a disappointing .200/.311/.257 with just one home run and 10 RBI. His 76 wRC+ is the worst on the team amongst Mariner hitters with at least 100 plate appearances. 

While Garver struggled mightily in 2024, he had significant success with fastballs, slugging .527 off 4-seamers, according to Baseball Savant. This year, 4-seam fastballs have given him the most trouble of any pitch type, slugging just .162 against them. 

There was cautious optimism coming into the year that the 34-year-old could rebound and become a valuable bat in the DH role, but that optimism has essentially vanished. He is not a viable offensive piece, which they are paying him to be. 

Given Garver’s $12.5 million salary, the Mariners may be more hesitant to move on than perhaps they should be. However, if things continue at this pace, Seattle’s front office may have no other choice but to cut their losses. 

Seattle Mariners right-handed starting pitcher Bryce Miller during the teams May 31st, 2025 win over the Minnesota Twins at T-Mobile Park. (Photos by Kevin Ng for Circling Seattle Sports)

Bryce Miller

It has been a tough year for Miller who has been battling through a bone spur in his right elbow. Miller’s velocity has been down noticeably in every outing and his control has been erratic as he has attempted to pitch through injury. Since May 1st, “Big Tex” has posted a 9.50 ERA, 1.72 WHIP and just a 9.2% strikeout rate. 


After he was ambushed again last Friday against the Angels, the Mariners placed Miller back on the Injured List with elbow inflammation. Manager Dan Wilson stated that, unfortunately, the right hander’s elbow did not respond in the manner that they had hoped after receiving a cortisone shot weeks ago. Unless he responds drastically better to treatment this go around, it is fair to assume surgery will be the next step for Miller. 


Trent Thornton

By Fangraphs’ fWAR, reliever Trent Thornton has been Seattle’s worst arm amongst all pitchers at the major league level this year, producing -0.9 fWAR in his 18.2 innings pitched. 

After a rough start to the season, Thornton recently returned from nearly a month on the Injured List (appendicitis) and has thrown in two games since he returned. In his first outing, Thornton threw 2.1 innings against the Angels and gave up just one earned run. Unfortunately, he didn’t fare quite as well in his second outing, surrendering five earned runs on five hits over one inning of work, effectively putting the game out of reach. The Mariners would go on to lose 10-3.

Last year, Thornton was Seattle’s most used bullpen arm, and the hope was that he could continue to provide reliable middle relief. Unfortunately, his usage has cost them more often than not this season. Unless a drastic turn around happens quickly, the Mariners will need to find someone to take his place. 

What’s Next?

Seattle will try to right the ship with a quick six-game homestand. They first see the Cleveland Guardians (35-32) who come to T-Mobile Park with a 4-6 record over their last 10 games. They will welcome back old friends Carlos Santana and Matt Festa (Paul Sewald, also on Cleveland’s roster, is currently on the 15-day IL). Santana has had a good year with the Guardians, serving as their primary first baseman. Festa has also had a decent year, a nice bounce back from the struggles he saw in 2024. 


The Boston Red Sox (34-36) then come to town for a three-game set, fresh off the call-up of Roman Anthony, the number one overall prospect in baseball. Coming into the season, the Red Sox were favored amongst many analysts to win the American League East. Instead, they have unexpectedly struggled and suffered injuries to key players, most notably their newly acquired third baseman, Alex Bregman. Boston comes in with a 6-4 record over their last 10 games.

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Instagram: @CirclingSeattleSports Twitter: @CirclingSports Threads: @CirclingSeattleSports Tiktok: @CirclingSeattleSports Facebook: Circling Seattle Sports BlueSky: @circlingseasports.bsky.social 〰️

Charles Hamaker
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